Summer officially ends and autumn begins at 10:49 a.m. Saturday, and forecasters say they expect the Carolinas to enjoy mild and damp weather over the next three months.
The good news, they add, is that the cooler weather this month will give a boost to autumn leaf colors and to homeowners hoping to revive their lawns.
The Climate Prediction Center, the government’s long-range forecasting division, says temperatures and precipitation will be above average from October through December in the Carolinas and the rest of the Southeast. That follows a summer that produced Charlotte’s hottest July in nearly 20 years and rain on 47 of 92 days from June through August.
Wet weather typically means vivid fall leaf colors, and the cool weather that spread into the Carolinas last week and is forecast to remain until early October is helping produce a color change.
That means, according to experts, that leaf color might be good this autumn – and we’ll be able to enjoy it in mild weather later in October.
“This far ahead, I am predicting a good year for fall leaf color, assuming our weather continues to cooperate over the next few weeks,” writes Howie Neufeld, an Appalachian State University professor who publishes a weekly fall leaf color report for the Carolinas.
Landis Wofford, director of communication for Grandfather Mountain, said a botanist on their staff says “the color change might come a bit early this year.”
Some of the maples, sourwoods and buckeye trees already have changed colors at the higher altitudes, she says.
The forecast also bodes well for homeowners and horticulturists who use autumn as a recovery time from the stresses of summer weather.
“This pattern – warm days, cool nights and moisture – have been good,” says Scott Ewers, horticulture agent for the state extension service in Mecklenburg County. “It’s working out nicely for people who are overseeding their lawns, which should be happening now.”
An El Niño pattern has become established, which means steering currents tend to bring storm systems across the South. That will account for the rainy weather this fall, forecasters say. A wet autumn not only helps lawns grow, but it also puts a dent in the Carolinas wildfire threat.
What worries some meteorologists, however, is that we might get too much of a good thing.
“We have to be careful, … particularly from Louisiana into the Southeast,” says Paul Pastelok, long-range forecaster for Accu-Weather, the large, private meteorology firm. “There is the potential for fronts stalling out and causing widespread flooding.
“That’s an area of concern as we get into October and November, especially,” he said.
Accu-Weather includes Charlotte in the zone that will be at risk for autumn flooding.
There are still several peak weeks left in the hurricane season, but meteorologists say the recent trend has been for tropical systems to remain in the open Atlantic.
Later in the fall, meteorologists will be watching to see whether the autumn pattern evolves into something different for winter. John Tomko, climatologist for the National Weather Service’s office in Greer, S.C., said a winter El Niño pattern, combined with what forecasters call a negative North Atlantic Oscillation, could bring cold air and moisture into the Southeast at the same time.
“That’s a recipe for snow and ice,” he says.
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