Obama 83.7%, Romney 16.3%
Wow.I was just looking at
Nate Silver’s (of the NYT/538.com)
latest analysis of the polls, and he now has President Obama at an
83.7% chance of winning on Tuesday as compared to Romney’s 16.3%.
It’s interesting to look at Nate’s graph of what the President’s
chances were back in May compared to now. And as I’ve written about
before, Obama kept doing better and better vis-a-vis Romney until that
first debate. Then pow! Obama plummeted, Romney surged, but it just
wasn’t enough. Especially in the key swing states, where I wrote before about how Romney momentum post-debate-one was nothing like it was nationally. He just didn’t surge in the states he needed.
Source: Nate Silver of 538.com/NYT.
More from Nate:
Friday’s polling should make it easy to discern why Mr.
Obama has the Electoral College advantage. There were 22 polls of swing
states published Friday. Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls, and two
showed a tie. Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon
poll of Florida.
Nate says the race isn’t too close to call. The only way that Romney
wins now is because the polls were all statistically biased. A
possibility, but not likely:
To be exceptionally clear: I do not mean to imply that the polls are
biased in Mr. Obama’s favor. But there is the chance that they could be
biased in either direction. If they are biased in Mr. Obama’s favor,
then Mr. Romney could still win; the race is close enough. If they are
biased in Mr. Romney’s favor, then Mr. Obama will win by a
wider-than-expected margin, but since Mr. Obama is the favorite anyway,
this will not change who sleeps in the White House on Jan. 20.
My argument, rather, is this: we’ve about reached the point where if
Mr. Romney wins, it can only be because the polls have been biased
against him. Almost all of the chance that Mr. Romney has in the
FiveThirtyEight forecast, about 16 percent to win the Electoral College,
reflects this possibility.
Yes, of course: most of the arguments that the polls are necessarily
biased against Mr. Romney reflect little more than wishful thinking.
Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually
coherent than the ones that propose that the leader in the race is “too
close to call.” It isn’t.
Huffington Post/Pollster.com concurs with Nate regarding victory and
electoral votes. Nate predicts Obama with 305.3 electoral votes, and
Romney with 232.7. HuffPo gives Obama 281 to Romney’s 191. Yes, HuffPo
is more optimistic, but still gives Obama a healthy margin of victory.
As HuffPo’s Mark Blumental notes, “Obama’s swing-state margins [are] holding.”
As the presidential campaign enters its final weekend,
the polling snapshot remains essentially unchanged. President Barack
Obama and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney remain essentially
deadlocked in most national surveys, but polls in battleground states
continue to show Obama with just enough of an edge in states whose
electoral votes would add up to more than the 270 needed to win.
With just four days remaining until the vote is counted,
poll watchers should be on alert for any developing trends that might
signal a late shift in voter preferences. As of this writing, there are a
few hints, but none that rise to the level of statistical significance.
Now, polls don’t take into account one side trying to steal an election.
Also, repugican dirty tricks should be expected, and are already happening.
That’s why it’s important that folks not get too cocky about this. We
still need to turn out and vote in higher numbers than the other side
cheats.