Now that the worst of Hurricane Sandy has passed — the actual storm,
not the cleanup — I thought it would be good to review this. It’s
recent, but pre-Sandy. Joe Romm at
ThinkProgress (my emphasis; note that Romm is the “I” in the passage below):
NOAA Bombshell: Warming-Driven Arctic Ice Loss Is Boosting Chance of Extreme U.S. Weather
Two new studies make a strong case that global warming is driving an intensification of high-pressure anomalies that in turn make North American weather more extreme. They add to a growing body of scientific observation and analysis on the connection between man-made climate change and extreme weather — and disasters [do click].
So I can say, not coincidentally, Munich Re, the world’s largest reinsurance company is releasing a report next week based on its natural catastrophe database — the most comprehensive of its kind in the world — that concludes:
- Global warming is driving an increase in weather-related disasters
- “North America is the continent with the largest increases in disasters.“
And so I can also say, not coincidentally, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) reported Tuesday in its “State of the Climate” for September that the Climate Extremes Index for the period January-through-September was over the highest ever — and over twice the average value — since record-keeping began in 1910.
NOAA is the U.S. National Oceanographic and Atmospheric
Administration. Romm mentions a NOAA “State of the Climate” chart. Here
it is:
Note that the binomial smoothing curve (the
green line)
also jumps abnormally high in 2012, yet does a great job of smoothing
through all of the previous disasters — the droughts of the 1930s for
example don’t cause the same jump.
This is not good. Sandy is not a one-off, but a “one-of,” as in one of many. Batten down.
Loss of Arctic sea ice
The NOAA report above ties the coming extreme weather to the rapid
disappearance of Arctic summer sea ice, and Romm includes a chart of
that as well. Here’s that chart (click to big):
I know climate scientists need to be conservative —
science is conservative — but I’ll say it again.
When it comes to climate predictions, we’ve been consistently wrong to the slow side. This thing is coming faster than anyone imagined.
And one more time for this warning as well. We’ve had near-total “
climate silence”
during this year’s presidential ad campaign (sorry, sparkling
intellectual debate). This will the last year that such a conversation
can be had, in my view. In 2016, if my estimates are correct, we won’t have enough turning radius to make a change in time.
Crash-conversion from carbon will he heard if we start now, but
doable. Crash-conversion from carbon will be almost impossible if we
don’t start until 2017. Remember, my deadline for a baked-in 3°C increase — making James Hansen’s mass extinction scenario unavoidable — is roughly 2022.
(Nevertheless, I predict that 2016 will be the year each candidate
advertises their “climate concern” — it will be the meme of the
campaign, just like advertising their “struggling middle class concern”
is the meme of this one. What do I mean by “meme”? I mean what’s meant
by slogans like “More taste” and “Improved formula”. You know —
words.)
One more chart — disaster costs
Just to round this off, let’s look at pre-Sandy disaster costs. This is the NOA chart for disaster costs from 1980–2011.
It’s that
green spike on
the right you’re interested in. That’s the total number of
billion-dollar disasters (left scale). I want to see what Sandy does to
this thing; it won’t be pretty. That
red total-costs line (right scale) should shoot right up.
Here’s a thought. There will be a huge price to pay
for all this damage, and all the damages to come. Instead of taking it
out of general funds, how about we make a special assessment — in the
range of many billions — from the pockets of the Climate Criminals whose
pockets these disasters are lining? You know, people like Ace Climate Criminal — Rex Tillerson, CEO of ExxonMobil, or the King and Queen of climate crime, David and Charles Koch, in that order.
Let’s start by unlining their pockets — I think I hear some climate
cash jingling in there. After all, if the climate crime profits are
theirs, so should be the costs.
And here’s another thought. If newly-minted executive assassinator Obama
can kill by executive order, let him tax by executive order. There’s
gotta be a way, like a drone-strike on David Koch’s bank account? (OK,
that’s not politically practical; I get that. Killing by executive order
isn’t a bridge too far for most Americans, but
taxing … now that’s over the line.)
Bottom line
We really can stop this disaster. I wouldn’t be writing about it if
it were hopeless — I’d be doing something more productive. We just have
to up our game. My suggestion includes a full-on focus on the real perps
— the megalomaniac climate CEOs and their enablers in political office, the media, and the faux-science world.
And after the current frenzied ad campaign (sorry, exercise in
democracy) winds down, I’ll have much more to say, and hopefully to do,
about it.
In the meantime, stay optimistic, stay focused, and stay informed. We
may be near a tipping point, but we’re not there yet. Now is the time
your help is needed most.