by Max Fisher · Monday, January 04
The supposedly ancient Sunni-Shia divide is in fact very modern — and it's not really about religion.
Only a few days into the new year, the Middle East has already taken a
significant turn for the worse. The region's greatest rivalry, between
Saudi Arabia and Iran, has become rapidly and significantly more toxic
in the past few days, and it could have repercussions across the Middle
East.
On Saturday, protesters in Tehran attacked the Saudi embassy, ransacking
and burning it as Iran ignored or refused Saudi requests to protect the
building. Saudi Arabia formally broke off diplomatic relations with
Iran on Sunday, on Monday saying it would cut commercial ties and ban
Saudi travel to Iran as well. Sudan and Bahrain, both Saudi allies,
severed ties as well.
In some ways, this sort of diplomatic confrontation was perhaps
inevitable: Saudi Arabia and Iran see one another as enemies, and are
locked in an escalating competition for influence and dominance of the
Middle East. That rivalry goes far beyond just words, with both
countries backing militant groups and proxy forces throughout the
region, particularly in Syria. Their competition is a major driver of
conflict in the Middle East, including the growing violence along
Sunni-Shia lines.
There had been hints that Saudi Arabia and Iran, perhaps exhausted by
their conflict, might be willing to deescalate in 2016, maybe even
finding peace deals for the wars in Syria and Yemen. But this week's
events have ended those hopes, and suggest things may rather get worse.
That's not just bad for Saudi Arabia and Iran — it is bad for the entire
Middle East, as both regional conflicts such as Syria and generalized
Sunni-Shia tension are likely to increase.
We are only four days into 2016, and already it is a year in which
things in the Middle East have taken, impossible though it may seem, a
significant turn for the worse. Here's how it happened and why this has
Mideast analysts so worried.
This began with an execution in Saudi Arabia
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia announced on Saturday that it had executed
more people in a single day than most death penalty countries, including
the United States, kill in an entire year: 47, at 12 different sites
across the country. Some were killed by beheading, according to the
Guardian, and others by firing squad.
What makes the mass execution most significant is not its scale but
rather the name of one man among the 47, many of whom were Sunni
jihadists and al-Qaeda terrorists. That name is Nimr al-Nimr: a
prominent religious leader from Saudi Arabia's Shia minority.
Nimr's execution outraged the Middle East's Shia communities and the
leaders of Shia-majority countries. Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi
condemned the execution, warning of "repercussions" for regional
security. Iran threatened vague consequences, with the Iranian
Revolutionary Guards telling Saudi Arabia to expect "harsh revenge."
Protests broke out in Bahrain, Pakistan. In Iran, protesters set fire
first to a Saudi consulate building in Mashhad and then to the embassy
in Tehran.
The government's choice to kill Nimr wasn't just about this one
religious leader. For Saudi Arabia, Nimr represented the danger of
internal Shia dissent, behind which it saw Iran's nefarious hand — and
perhaps also an opportunity to generate more support for its struggling
war in Yemen. For Shia throughout the region, though, Nimr was a symbol
of Saudi Arabia's oppression of Shia, and of the dangers that Shia face
in the mostly Sunni Middle East.
