Cheers and applause broke out at party headquarters when Israel's three networks announced their exit polls gave Livni between 47 percent and 49 percent, compared to 37 percent for her closest rival, former defense minister and military chief Shaul Mofaz.
Livni needed 40 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff next week, and her supporters hugged each other and shed tears of joy.
"It's the beginning of a new period in Israeli politics," Moshe Conforti said amid the celebration.
If official results bear out the exit polls, as is likely, the 50-year-old Livni will replace Prime Minister Ehud Olmert as head of Kadima. Olmert, the target of a career-ending corruption probe, promised to step down as soon as a new Kadima leader was chosen.
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Who knows this might be the answer to a lot of questions in that part of the world.
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