A team of scientists from N.C. State University agrees with its counterpart from Colorado State University.
This will be a "normal" hurricane season in the Atlantic basin and the Gulf of Mexico, the N.C. State researchers said today.
It's the same forecast issued earlier this week by Colorado State's William Gray and Philip Klotzbach.
The N.C. State team -- Dr. Lian Xie, Dr. Montserrat Fuentes and Danny Modlin -- said they expect 11 to 14 named storms forming this year in the Atlantic basin, which includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. They said six to eight storms will grow strong enough to become hurricanes, and they predicted a 45 percent chance that one hurricane will make landfall on the Southeast U.S. coast.
Xie, a professor of marine, earth and atmospheric sciences, also said he predicts three to five named storms affecting the Gulf, with one to three becoming hurricanes.
"The data show that the number of storms this year will not vary significantly from those of the past 20 years," Xie said. "In fact, 2009's numbers are slightly lower than last year's prediction of 13 to 15 named storms."
Xie's methodology evaluates data from the last 100 years' worth of Atlantic storm positions and intensity, along with variables including weather patterns and sea surface temperatures.
The Colorado State team said Tuesday that they expect 12 named storms this year, with six becoming hurricanes and two growing into intense hurricanes of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
The Atlantic basin hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The National Hurricane Center will make its first prediction of the season next month.
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I am all aflutter from the ecstasy from knowing this - how about you?
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