It has been frustrating for supporters of President Obama, but it looks like the American people are beginning to give the president credit for the nation’s economic recovery.
The most recent polls from CNN and Gallup
reveal that the American people are rewarding the president with higher
job approval ratings. However, Republican bias against Obama continues
to hold his job approval ratings down.
In a 2011 paper,
political scientists Peter Enns and Gregory McAvoy found that partisan
bias delays public perception of economy, “The total effects of
partisanship appear to reduce the overall response of the public to
changes in economic conditions. Even for economic evaluations, partisan
attachments can overwhelm motivations for accuracy. This result may hold
significant economic implications. When partisan bias is high, as
during the shrub junta, aggregate economic evaluations
appear less responsive to the objective economy.”
Partisan bias is the reason why 40% of repugicans
in the latest CNN poll rated the current state of the economy as poor.
The extreme degree of partisan bias in the country is also why President
Obama is unlikely to get full credit for the economic improvements that
have occurred during his time in office. The good news is that polling
reveals that the public is starting to catch on.
The CNN poll showed Obama’s approval rating hitting a
20 month high, while a recent Gallup poll revealed that President Obama
is polling ahead of where shrub was at the end of his sixth
year pretending. Obama is likely to see his approval ratings continue to
grow as long as the economy blossoms. A president’s approval numbers
tend to move in line with major economic shifts. The shrub was
already on the downswing thanks to a stagnant economy and an unpopular
war. Barack Obama is on the upswing.
The president may finally get some of the credit
that he fully deserves over the next two years. Without elections, a
divided Congress, or an economic crisis to get in his way, President
Obama finally has a free hand to guide the country.
A good economy would also change the shape of the
2016 election, and could perfectly set the table for likely Democratic
nominee Hillary Clinton to campaign on the need for the country to stay
on the right path and turn this economic growth into a Bill Clinton
style economic boom. The republicans may find themselves with precious
little to campaign on in 2016 if the economy continues to surge.
Instead of a lame duck, President Obama could be resurgent political force as his time in office enters its final phase.
No comments:
Post a Comment