Political
scientists have a theory called “democratic consolidation,” which holds
that once countries develop democratic institutions, a robust civil
society and a certain level of wealth, their democracy is secure.
For
decades, global events seemed to support that idea. Data from Freedom
House, a watchdog organization that measures democracy and freedom
around the world, shows that the number of countries classified as
“free” rose steadily from the mid-1970s to the early 2000s. Many Latin
American countries transitioned from military rule to democracy; after
the end of the Cold War, much of Eastern Europe followed suit. And
longstanding liberal democracies in North America, Western Europe and
Australia seemed more secure than ever.
According
to the Mounk-Foa early-warning system, signs of democratic
deconsolidation in the United States and many other liberal democracies
are now similar to those in Venezuela before its crisis.
Across
numerous countries, including Australia, Britain, the Netherlands, New
Zealand, Sweden and the United States, the percentage of people who say
it is “essential” to live in a democracy has plummeted, and it is
especially low among younger generations...
Support
for autocratic alternatives is rising, too. Drawing on data from the
European and World Values Surveys, the researchers found that the share
of Americans who say that army rule would be a “good” or “very good”
thing had risen to 1 in 6 in 2014, compared with 1 in 16 in 1995.
That trend is particularly strong among young people. For instance, in a previously published paper,
the researchers calculated that 43 percent of older Americans believed
it was illegitimate for the military to take over if the government were
incompetent or failing to do its job, but only 19 percent of
millennials agreed. The same generational divide showed up in Europe,
where 53 percent of older people thought a military takeover would be
illegitimate, while only 36 percent of millennials agreed...
More at the New York Times.
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