Deconstructing Astronomy’s Holy Grail

I have discussed the “holy grail problem” extensively in previous studies. Rather than
retread yet again on that same hallowed ground, I’ve elected, in this paper, to give the research a new focus -- that of specialization. The field of astronomy, in particular, is ripe for a treatment of this sort. As for why astronomy stands out in this regard, it’s not for me to say. My job (according to my grants manager) is to collect the data and present it in an even-handed way, without tipping my hand in a manner that might be perceived as uneven-handed or worse. However, I am allowed to speculate, albeit briefly, since my editor told me I could do so provided I limit my remarks to a few introductory sentences (the edited remnants of which you are reading here).

Allowable Digression
Astronomy, it strikes this observer, attracts an inordinate number of grail references because the field naturally lends itself to exaggeration: the biggest supercluster, the oldest galaxy, the most distant supernova, the brightest gamma-ray burster, the most massive supermassive black hole, and so forth. Given the penchant of bench scientists, as well as the reporters heralding their exploits, to resort to hyperbole, it is no surprise that the holy grail is an active (and some might say “hyperactive”) player in the celestial literature, cropping up, on average, once every two to three peer-reviewed articles and even more frequently in the non-refereed literature, where editorial “gatekeepers” are few and far between.

The Twin Pillars
Having dispensed with my two allotted sentences -- digressive, as well as complex, and borderline run-ons -- I shall now proceed with the task at hand, an attempt to divine the meaning of the holy grail from the “twin pillars” of grail analysis upon which everything else (including all forms of punctuation, even the lowly apostrophe) rests: history and context. When the examples are lined up on the printed page, and laid out, logarithmically, in chronological fashion, does a pattern emerge? If so, is that pattern real or imagined? Likewise, one might ask whether we can ever define the “holy grail” in precise, unambiguous terms, or will its definition be limited to a set of transient qualities that shift endlessly like the proverbial sands of time?

The task, as always, is formidable, yet I am comforted in my journey by the almost myopic single-mindedness of science. Indeed, my mantra can be summed up in a simple dictum -- one that’s been drummed into the head of every aspiring reductionist: when legitimate theories are at odds, or even nonexistent, it’s time to consider the harsh cruel facts. In other words, let the data speak.

The cosmic microwave background.

The Impassioned Fight Over Grail Bragging Rights
Although fleeting mention of the holy grail cropped up in the astronomical literature before this date,
the true starting point was 1992, when the first results from NASA’s Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) satellite mission were announced. Oxford cosmologist Joseph Silk (then stationed at the University of California, Berkeley) called the observed ripples in the cosmic microwave background (CMB) “the missing link,” paving the way for untold grail references to follow. At the time, a leading astronomer on that mission, George Smoot (also of Berkeley), placed a sign on his office door that read, “Home of the Holy Grail” and added this caption to a now-famous COBE map, “Behold the Face of god,” suggesting a link between the holy grail and the divinity that is none too surprising, given that a common definition of “holy” means “given or belonging to God.” (The “grail,” itself, was originally supposed to be a cup or dish used in a key religious ritual, but has since taken on metaphorical meaning, as we shall see.)

Binary dwarf and companion.

A year later, everything shifted, as University of Washington astronomer Craig Hogan spoke of the “halo grail,” while referring to objects -- such as brown dwarfs, “degenerate dwarfs,” and other compact remnants -- that make up the “dark halo” of our galaxy. In one fell swoop, the holy grail had come home, so to speak, moving from a redshift (“z”) of 1089 to z=0. In the process, galactic astronomers had usurped the “higher ground” from the cosmologists, contesting their long-
held claim to the grail.

Then the free-for-all began. A solar neutrino experiment in Japan, ostensibly the domain of astrophysics, led one observer to speak of (yet-to-be-seen) evidence of proton decay, manifested by a distinctive pattern of Cerenkov radiation, as “’the Holy Grail’ of particle physics.”

Two months later, cosmologists recaptured the grail as rightfully theirs in a discussion of the Hubble parameter (better known as the Hubble constant) which, at the time, had been narrowed down
(emphasis added) to “somewhere between 40 and 100 on the odd-sounding scale of ‘kilometers per second per megaparsec.’”

Two Saturn-size planets in the Kepler 9 system.

Planet watchers did not take this sitting down. Another two months later (might this be a special “grail transition interval”?), they claimed to have found the holy grail in the form of a “planet orbiting a sun-like star.” Geoff Marcy, also of Berkeley (might this venue, like “Area 51,” be another connection as well?), clarified this several years later in a 2000 interview for the Berkeleyan, presumably a campus newspaper: the discovery of two planets about the size of Saturn, he claimed, “is like
finding the Holy Grail of astronomy.” The definition narrowed two years later, once again demonstrating the ineluctable power of two (two months, two years, etc.): the holy grail was then called “a true analog of our Solar System, complete with Earth-like planets.”

The Transitory Grail Period
So it might appear the matter was settled at the dawn of the 21st century. But nothing could be further from the truth. The European Southern Observatory, speaking in 2001 through its official mouthpiece, made a bold, though controversial statement: “Most astronomers would agree that the age of the Universe -- the time elapsed since the ‘Big Bang’ -- is one of the ‘holy grails of cosmology.’” But did they agree? Far from it. A strong riposte was offered a year later: “If there’s a holy grail in astronomy, it’s to understand how the universe evolved from the Big Bang into what we see today.”

Another two months passed before Dale Doeleman of Haystack Observatory averred that locating the point at which jets (of high-speed particles emitted by active galactic nucleii) turned on was itself the long-sought “Holy Grail.”

Two months (an interval that is almost becoming tedious in its ubiquity) later, the “astronomical grail” was identified as the “discovery of any still-living Population III stars” -- in other words, the universe’s first stars.

Concept drawing of a black hole.

The “holy grail of astronomy,” as stated a shade less than two months later, was recast as “a pulsar in orbit around a black hole.” A concomittant claim suggested the grail would not be found in the vicinity of a black hole but rather in a specific polarization pattern in the CMB data betraying hints of primordial gravity waves. Michael Turner (then at the University of Chicago and now at the National Science Foundation) concurred with this assessment: “Gravity waves are the real holy grail in all this,” he said, calling their existence the next big test for the theory of inflation.

The beat goes on, as two Californians once said, and that’s certainly the case with the grail as well. Edward Bowell of the Lowell Observatory called the “re-sighting of Hermes” -- 66 years after it was last observed -- “the Holy Grail of near-Earth asteroid astronomy.” The trend here, as stated at the onset, is one of “specialization,” with each of astronomy’s sub-fields claiming its own piece of the grail pie. Yet another new category to emerge, for example, is the “Holy Grail of extrasolar planet research.”

Neutrino astronomy, similarly, has its own grail, hidden in the postulated (though never seen) “cosmic neutrino background.” And that, I believe is a fitting note upon which to conclude this discussion, for that’s exactly where the grail lies today: “postulated though never seen.”

Concluding Remarks, Afterthoughts, and Second Thoughts
The balkanization of the holy grail -- like the spread of kudzu or the mass production of pocket universes in eternal inflation scenarios -- is not likely to stop. The search for “the Holy Grail of astronomy,” to this observer, is almost guaranteed to fail. There may not be any grails to be had whatsoever, and if there is one, there are surely many.

The debate about the grail will persist for as long as people remain sentient creatures, as opposed to inert pieces of calcified rock. Various threads, a few of which were first uncovered in this analysis, will undoubtedly be explored in future studies: is “two” a statistically-significant number in grail evolution, like “lucky seven” in craps and “number nine” in Beatles lore? Is Berkeley a hotbed of grail activity, in addition to being a hotbed of leftist agitation and general rowdiness? The questions are many and the answers still scant, which perhaps is as it should be in this Holmesian mystery saga otherwise known as “The Strange Case of the Holy Grail.” 

Has the World Reached Peak Chicken?

You won't believe how many chickens live on this planet.

From Mother Jones
by Kiera Butler, Tasneem Raja, and Maggie Severns

On Wednesday, the Northern California animal sanctuary Animal Place will airlift—yes, you read that right: airlift—1,150 elderly laying hens from Hayward, California, to Elmira, New York, in an Embraer 120 turbo-prop.

The price? $50,000.

Right. So obviously, this isn't the most efficient way to spend your chicken-helping money. It didn't take me very long to think of some alternatives: For example, you could couple all 1,150 hens off and buy each pair its own home. You could feed 367 chickens fancy organic food for an entire year.* You could feed 157 people the very fanciest, most coddled, free-rangest, organic-est eggs ever for a year. You could buy flocks of chicks for 2,500 farmers in the developing world through the charity Heifer International.
Don't get me wrong—it's not that I think that these soon-to-be-airborn hens don't deserve a better life. They come from an undisclosed California battery cage egg operation, and as most people know by now, that is no picnic. Animal Place's Marji Beach explained to me that once laying hens reach the age of about 18 months, their egg production slows, and it's no longer economically feasible for egg operations to keep them around. The result is that each plant has to get rid of thousands of "spent" hens every year. What happens to those hens? In most cases, they don't end up in your chicken soup broth, or even in your cat or dog's food. That's because most slaughterhouses don't accept them—they have too little meat on their bones to turn a profit. Instead, egg producers often kill spent hens with highly concentrated carbon dioxide gas. (That probably costs far less than flying the hens across the country, but it doesn't appeal to Animal Place, whose website urges visitors over and over again to go vegan.)
When a few other Mother Jones staffers and I heard about the spent-hens problem, it got us wondering: Has the world reached peak chicken? Considering the fact that Americans eat 79 billion eggs a year, that's an awful lot of laying hens. And that's to say nothing of the so-called broiler operations that make chickens for supermarket shelves and fast-food sandwiches and nuggets.
According to UC Davis professor and poultry expert Dr. Rodrigo Gallardo, there are a few reasons why the world is eating more chicken and eggs than ever these days. "If you think about several years ago, most people ate beef or pork because there was more availability and because it was cheaper," Gallardo says. But chickens have become more attractive as options over time: they're lean, they've been bred over time to produce more meat, and raising them takes up much less land than raising cows or pigs.
"If you think about eggs, eggs are cheap, they are easy to consume, they are fun—people can cook them in different ways," Gallardo explains. "Kids always like them, and they are the cheapest protein you can get from an animal source."
Exactly how many chickens does the world have? we wondered. The answer, we found, is a whole lot—and it's increasing. Here are a few charts that will give you a sense of the scale of the chicken explosion:

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Today in History

337		Constantine's three sons, already Caesars, each take the title of Augustus. Constantine II and Constans share the west while Constantius II takes control of the east.
1087		William the Conquerer, Duke of Normandy and King of England, dies in Rouen while conducting a war which began when the French king made fun of him for being fat.
1513		King James IV of Scotland is defeated and killed by English at Flodden.
1585		Pope Sixtus V deprives Henry of Navarre of his rights to the French crown.
1776		The term "United States" is adopted by the Continental Congress to be used instead of the "United Colonies."
1786		George Washington calls for the abolition of slavery.
1791		French Royalists take control of Arles and barricade themselves inside the town.
1834		Parliament passes the Municipal Corporations Act, reforming city and town governments in England.
1850		California, in the midst of a gold rush, enters the Union as the 31st state.
1863		The Union Army of the Cumberland passes through Chattanooga as they chase after the retreating Confederates. The Union troops will soon be repulsed at the Battle of Chickamauga.
1886		The Berne International Copyright Convention takes place.
1911		An airmail route opens between London and Windsor.
1915		A German zeppelin bombs London for the first time, causing little damage.
1926		The Radio Corporation of America creates the National Broadcasting Co.
1942		A Japanese float plane, launched from a submarine, makes its first bombing run on a U.S. forest near Brookings, Oregon.
1943		Allied troops land at Salerno, Italy and encounter strong resistance from German troops.
1948		Kim Il-sung declares the establishment of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.
1956		Elvis Presley makes his first appearance on The Ed Sullivan Show; cameras focus on his upper torso and legs to avoid showing his pelvis gyrations, which many Americans—including Ed Sullivan—thought unfit for a family show.
1965		US Department of Housing and Urban Development established.
1965		Hurricane Betsy, the first hurricane to exceed $1 billion in damages (unadjusted), makes its second landfall, near New Orleans.
1969		Canada's Official Languages Act takes effect, making French equal to English as a language within the nation's government.
1970		U.S. Marines launch Operation Dubois Square, a 10-day search for North Vietnamese troops near DaNang.
1971		Attica Prison Riot; the 4-day riot leaves 39 dead.
1976		Communist Chinese leader Mao Tse-tung dies in Beijing at age 82.
1990		Sri Lankan Army massacres 184 civilians of the Tamil minority in the Batticaloa District of Sri Lanka.
1991		Tajikstan declares independence from USSR.
1993		The Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO) officially recognizes Israel as a legitimate state.
2001		Two al Qaeda assassins kill Ahmed Shah Massoud, leader of the Northern Alliance in Afghanistan.
2001		A car bomb explodes outside the Australian embassy in Jakarta, killing 10 people.

Non Sequitur

Did you know ...

That it costs $350 to make an artificial hip. It will cost you $30,000 to get one

That the parking garage where Deep Throat met Woodward may soon be demolished

That last person to see Adolf Hitler alive dies at age 96

North Carolina Hospital Will Shut Down In Six Months Because The State Won’t Expand Medicaid

by Sy Mukherjee

Vidant Pungo Hospital in Belhaven, NC will shut its doors within six months.

On Wednesday, residents of Belhaven, North Carolina got a taste of how stubborn repugican opposition to the Affordable Care Act can affect them personally when executives at Vidant Health System unanimously voted to shut down the local Vidant Pungo Hospital within six months. Vidant officials said the move was necessary as a consequence of North Carolina’s refusal to participate in Obamacare’s optional Medicaid expansion.
Belhaven is a small town of 1,688 where more than 55 percent of the population is African-American and approximately 28 percent of residents live in poverty. Vidant Pungo bills itself as “a private, not-for-profit 49-bed acute care hospital on the waterfront in Belhaven” that “provides medical care to patients in eastern Beaufort and Hyde counties, serving approximately 25,000 people with a service area of approximately 1,260 square miles.” In those counties, more than 19 percent and 25 percent of residents respectively live below the poverty level, according to the latest census data.
Since safety-net hospitals that serve regions with high numbers of poor and uninsured people often have patients who can’t afford to pay for their care, they usually have to rely on the government to pick up some of the tab for uncompensated medical treatment to stay financially viable. But Obamacare reduced reimbursements to these so-called “disproportionate share hospitals” (DSHs) — one of which is Vidant Pungo — since the law originally intended all states to expand Medicaid for every American living up to 133 percent of the Federal Poverty Level. If things had unfolded that way, these hospitals wouldn’t need the additional government payments since their patients would finally be able to pay for their own care through Medicaid.
But the Supreme Court ruled the expansion to be optional last summer. That’s why hospitals have intensely lobbied state officials to expand Medicaid, since the combination of uninsured patients and reduced federal reimbursements could spell financial doom for them. Unfortunately, at least 21 states with repugican governors or legislatures — including North Carolina — opposed to the health law have refused generous federal funding to expand Medicaid eligibility.
The federal government took steps in May to soften the blow to DSHs by tying how much states’ reimbursements for uncompensated care will be cut with their uninsurance rates — i.e., the larger uninsured population a state has, the less its DSH funding will be cut. But this is merely a fiscal band-aid, not a permanent solution. And as Vidant Pungo’s imminent shuttering demonstrates, some hospitals simply aren’t willing to risk the uncertainty.
Expanding Medicaid would cut North Carolina’s uninsurance rate by more than 48 percent.

Wendy Davis Wins Legal Case Against Texas repugicans’ Racist Gerrymandering

by Randa Morris 

On Wednesday, September 4th, a San Antonio, Texas Federal District Court of three judges which has been hearing the case challenging Texas redistricting legislation, entered a final judgment in the law suit.  In its ruling, the Court determined that Wendy Davis and other plaintiffs won their case against  the new redistricting maps for Texas Senatorial elections . The decision will stop the racist redistricting plans laid out by Texas repugicans, which would have disenfranchised  thousands of eligible voters, mostly minorities, across the state.
The judges ruled that discriminatory intent was found in two of the three proposed plans for redistricting in the state of Texas. The redistricting plan, which cost the state’s tax payers millions of dollars to defend in Federal Court, were found to be in violation of the United States Voting Rights Act.
Greg Abbott, who has announced his bid for governor of the state of Texas in 2014, showed remarkable levels of incompetence and partisanship in the handling of the redistricting plans. Abbott, who originally advised the legislature on the drawing and adoption of the new Senate redistricting maps, also served as primary legal counsel to the State of Texas at the time that the legislature was considering adopting the new redistricting plans. Abbot went on to defend the plans in federal court, a move which drew negative attention from across the US and ultimately served to embarrass both himself and the entire Lone star state on the national stage.
According to the Judges ruling, the redistricting plans showed clear intent to deny voting rights to  the Lone star state’s Hispanic, African American and Democratic voting population. The complaint, filed by Senator Wendy Davis, Marc Veasey and several other Plaintiffs, alleged that the the state’s Senate redistricting plan was draw “with the purpose and has the intent of minimizing and reducing the voting strength of minority populations the Tarrant and Dallas County areas of North Texas.” Davis’s complaint went on to state that the “Intentional fracturing and dismantling of the coalition of minority voters in Senate District 10 constitutes unlawful vote dilution and discrimination” both of which are unlawful under the United States Constitution as well as the US Voting Rights Act.
“FINAL JUDGMENT This Court previously ORDERED, ADJUDGED and DECREED: that Plaintiffs’ request for declaratory relief was granted to the extent that Senate plan S100, the benchmark plan, violates the one-person, one-vote requirements of the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution and will not be used for any further elections; that Plaintiffs’ request for injunctive relief was granted such that Senate plan S148, the 2011 enacted plan, has been permanently enjoined from implementation and no elections have been or will be held thereunder…”
The judges ruling also allows that the Plaintiffs in the case, Davis, Veasey and others who brought the suit, are to be reimbursed for their legal costs, as part of the final decision.
“…as prevailing parties, Plaintiffs are awarded their reasonable attorneys’ fees and costs.
Pursuant to Fed.R.Civ.P. 54(d)(2) and W.D. Tex. Rule CV-7(j), Plaintiffs may file their applications for attorneys’ fees and costs no later than twenty days after entry of judgment. If the application is opposed in whole or in part, a response in opposition shall be filed no later than ten days after the filing of the application. SIGNED AND ENTERED this 4th day of September, 2013.”
Watch Richard Fowler explains Texas Redistricting plan designed to disenfranchise minorities and create additional funding sources for white candidates in Texas

Florida’s Fraudulent Voting Witch Hunt Produces a “Shocking” Number of Cases — All repugican

The issue of voter fraud and new restrictive voter ID laws has taken this country by storm the last couple of years.  The repugican legislatures all across the country have taken “a stand against voter fraud” and passed highly restrictive new laws which they claim will reduce the possibility of fraudulent voting.
It just so happens that Florida, with their repugican Governor Rick Scott, is one of these states claiming strict voter ID laws are needed to prevent the possibility of rampant voter fraud.
Well, an investigation by the Florida Department of Law Enforcement has concluded, and their findings are absolutely stunning.
Upon concluding their investigation, they reported a staggering—two cases of voter registration fraud.
Yes, after several months of investigation following the 2012 elections, the Florida Department of Law Enforcement found a whopping two cases of actual voter registration fraud.
Oh, and the kicker?  The two cases consisted of two voter registration forms fraudulently filled out by a man who worked for the repugican cabal.  He admitted to stealing the identity of his former girlfriend’s ex-husband and filling out the two forms.
Well, the number of cases might increase considering two more cases do remain open, though it’s clear Governor Scott has moved on from this investigation.
I guess that’s what happens when you try to invent a problem that has never existed.
And this pattern of not finding “rampant” evidence of voter fraud isn’t just in Florida — repugicans all across the country are having trouble finding evidence that fraudulent voting is a threat to our election process.
But repugicans haven’t let these kinds of facts stand in their way of passing highly restrictive new voting laws in numerous repugican-controlled states which they claim will reduce the number of cases where people have tried to vote or register to vote illegally.
Though, let’s be honest.  Anyone with even a shred of common sense is well aware that these laws have nothing to do with “voter fraud” and everything to do with keeping people who often don’t vote for repugicans from being able to vote at all.
Because even if there are a handful of cases each election cycle where some sort of voting fraud is found, it pales in comparison to the tens of thousands (if not millions) of Americans who will be disenfranchised due to these highly restrictive voter ID laws.
So while repugicans claim they’re trying to solve one problem, which we all know is a blatant lie, they’re actually creating a problem in their efforts to keep those they wished wouldn’t vote from actually voting.
Because wingnuts know that their best chance at “winning” isn’t having better policies than Democrats — it’s simply doing all they can to keep Democrats from being able to vote.

Here we go again ...

Boehner Spirals Deeper Into Irrelevancy as He ‘Leads’ a cabal That Refuses to Follow

He was totally irrelevant to begin with anyway

 

The Washington Post’s latest whip count on the resolution to authorize force in Syria reveals just how irrelevant Speaker of the House John Boehner and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor have become in the repugican dominated House. While the two men are the nominal leaders of the repugican cabal House caucus, the word “leaders” at this point is simply a technical term to define two politically impotent figure heads, as neither man is capable of exercising any real leadership over the recalcitrant repugican cabal members in the House. Boehner and Cantor head one direction, the rest of the party lurches the other way.
The upcoming Syria resolution vote illustrates in stark terms how inept the supposed leaders of the repugican caucus have become. Boehner and Cantor were quick to support Obama’s call to action on Syria, putting partisan politics aside for a common national purpose. Yet, they have demonstrated that they have lost control of their own caucus, because the number of repugican representatives who have chosen to join them in support of the policy can almost be counted on one hand. Of the 232 House repugicans not named Cantor or Boehner, a grand total of six of them, have joined in expressing support for the authorization of force in Syria.  Bohner and Cantor no longer preside over the House repugican Caucus, they merely preside over half a dozen repugican men- Tim Cotton (AR), Adam Kinzinger (IL), Luke Messer (IN), Mike Pompeo (KS), Mike Rogers (MI),  and Peter King (NY).  Boehner and Cantor lead three little known congressional back benchers, Rogers, Cotton and the rabidly islamophobic Peter King.  While 62 repugican House members are still listed as undecided, 164 of them are firm no votes or leaning no votes. So the score is Cantor and Boehner 6, the forces of cabal mutiny 164.
While the vote has not been held yet, it is pretty clear at this point that  an overwhelming  majority of the repugican House is poised to vote against their cabal’s House leadership on the Syria resolution. The tea party mutiny is underway once again. Boehner has struggled to corral his caucus on bipartisan measures time and again.
Earlier this year he failed to bring immigration reform to the floor because a majority of his caucus was opposed and he chose not to violate the so-called “Hastert Rule”, which is invoked to prevent bringing legislation up for a vote if more repugicans will vote against a bill than for it. On three other occasions, Boehner has brought votes to the floor that have failed to gain a majority of repugican support in the House chamber. For example, when Boehner agreed to bring re-authorization of the Violence Against Women Act (VAWA) up for a vote, 138 repugicans voted “no” while only 87 (including Boehner) voted “yes” to pass the bill designed to curb domestic violence against women.
Boehner lost control of the repugican caucus long ago. The upcoming Syria vote is simply confirmation of what is already well known in Washington. The repugican cabal House leadership has completely squandered their control over the repugican caucus, and as the mutiny spreads within the repugican ranks, Boehner and Cantor are spiraling deeper and deeper into political irrelevancy.

Where Were You When They Stole Detroit’s Democracy?

If it happens here, it certainly won’t end here. The threat to Detroit’s democracy is a threat to everyone who values their right to vote, but especially to those whose vote is their only avenue toward effective representation in government. Not everyone can start a Super PAC. In fact most of us can’t. For most of us, the vote is our best way to let the powers-that-be know what we think, what we want, and to let them know that we will hold them accountable if they don’t act appropriately. Take away that vote, and you’re left with Gov. Rick Snyder’s America. Down here on the ground in Detroit, it has never been unusual as a part of random conversation you might have with a neighbor , friend,  or  perhaps even somebody you met at a bar, to wind up discussing the topic of what ‘they’ had planned for our city. What’s next for Detroit,  who will be determining what’s next – and who won’t – has been a constant topic that I have heard off and on throughout the city in more than a few social circles pretty much ever since I moved here nearly 20 years ago. There has always been that underlying sense that somewhere there was a plan brewing to steal Detroit back from Detroiters. It was only a matter of time before ‘they’ took our city from ‘us’ unless ‘we’ put up one hell of a fight. Not many would say out loud that they feared a conspiracy, but that feeling was there nevertheless. The feeling that someone or something is coming, and whoever/whatever it is isn’t interested in making life better for us.
“You know they want that water department.”
“They’ve been wanting back into this city for a long time.”
“”They’re about to take it back. You watch.”
Although there has never been a definitive definition for who ‘they’ are, the generally accepted understanding, especially as it relates to this particular topic of swirling conspiratorial rumors about what may be planned for Detroit’s future, is the predominantly white powers-that-be in government and business, spurred on by their predominantly white constituencies outside of the city,  who (the belief is) have been angry for a long time that Detroit has become a predominantly African American city, and that it has become a broke and dysfunctional city as a direct result of that fact. All you have to do is read the comment section of either the Detroit Free Press or the Detroit News on any given day when there is a story about something broken in Detroit to view some predictably ugly reader commentary detailing how black folks are to blame for all that is happening to them in Detroit and for the rapid decline of Detroit from its perch as a once great American city.
I have always said up front that Detroit itself does bear some responsibility for its current circumstances as a whole. We are not a city of victims, and we did play a role in how we got to where we are. We made some bad choices, we sometimes neglected to make the right ones when they were staring us in the face, and now we’re paying the price for that. But it’s also pretty difficult to ignore history, and the history of this city shows clearly that for nearly four decades Detroit has been slammed again and again by a never-ending perfect storm of catastrophic socio-economic events that were beyond our control, and that would have destroyed a city with a weaker heart. And as bad as things are, let the record show that Detroit’s heart is still beating.
I’m not one to believe in conspiracies too readily when it comes to Detroit, but the willingness of our own Gov. Rick Snyder, aided by the repugican-dominated Michigan Legislature, to steal democracy from Michigan’s largest city in broad daylight doesn’t make it easy to put those conspiracy theories to rest. Because ever since the voters of Michigan voted to repeal the state’s onerous Emergency Manager law last November, only to see Gov. Snyder collaborate with his crew to give the finger to his constituents by using highly questionable legal means to keep the law alive and shove it back down our throats, the fate of democracy in Michigan has been an open question. The new Emergency Manager law, passed within weeks of the old law’s defeat, is what gave Detroit EM Kevyn Orr, an illegitimate appointed kingpin, the power to file for bankruptcy with Snyder’s approval. Currently the entire new law, PA 436, is being challenged in Federal Court, essentially on the grounds that even a Governor should not be allowed to disregard the will of his own voters and reinstate a law that they rejected at the polls.
But what is not  in question is the likelihood that if Snyder is allowed to get away with this theft, then it will serve as a model to the repugican leadership of other poorer communities for how they can seize control from the people. In other words, this thing could go viral. Which means that those of us who support the return of democracy to Detroit need to go viral too. The mainstream media is focusing on bankruptcy as the big story, some even suggesting that this could be a good thing. Most seem to have forgotten – or ignored – that the entire process which permitted this to happen was illegitimate. And that is the story that needs to go viral.

Four secret taxes on the poor

With governments struggling to raise revenue, you won’t believe what they’re charging for now 

by Leah A. Plunkett

It’s been well documented that local and state governments are having a hard time making ends meet. But what’s less discussed is how they’re going about addressing it: in many cases, the problem has gotten so bad that governments are raising revenue by quietly taxing a group even more cash-strapped than they are: the poor.
You probably haven’t noticed this particular government bailout program taking place, but odds are good it’s happening somewhere near you. How is it possible that counties and states nationwide are going after all this money without most people noticing? By sending out bills for services that are often involuntary.
A close look at these bills shows that these are fees disproportionately levied on the least politically powerful: charging directly for the costs of certain governmental services traditionally paid for by the public as a whole. Here’s how it generally works: when misdeeds or misfortunes happen, people are often required to use services the government supplies to fix the situation somehow. They have no choice about whether or not to accept these services: the government may either require acceptance (e.g., in the case of alleged misdeeds: criminal justice services), or circumstances may make it a necessity (e.g., in the case of misfortune: emergency services).
Once services have been used, the government then bills the user for their cost. If payment isn’t made in full and on time, the user’s debt will likely grow through the addition of interest, late fees, and other penalties. The government may report non-payment or late payment to credit bureaus, which affects a user’s credit rating. And a bad credit score can make it very difficult to get jobs, housing, and loans to fulfill financial obligations— including the debt to the government.
Billing individual users for traditional public services hits the poor harder in two ways. First, they will likely have a more difficult time paying these debts than those with more means, which may result in them actually paying more money over time or experiencing serious negative consequences if they can’t pay. Second, poor people are more likely to be required to use certain types of services than wealthier citizens are, so this new billing system makes them disproportionately responsible for these services that used to be everyone’s responsibility. The effect is lower-income people being taxed not in spite of their poverty but because of it.

Here are four common types of “poor taxes”:
1. Emergency Response Services: A trip in the ambulance or a visit from the fire department can now result in bills for thousands of dollars. Some insurance plans will foot these bills, but not everyone has such good coverage — or any, for that matter.
2. Unemployment Benefits: Many workers who lose jobs are entitled to draw some support from state unemployment compensation funds to tide them over until their next job can be found. But states may make access to this money quite expensive when benefits are provided on debit cards with hefty fees attached that users have to pay.
3. “Pay-to-Stay” Programs: Counties nationwide are charging inmates for the cost of their own room-and-board while they’re in prison. Some counties are very aggressive about collection, pursuing inmates who don’t pay for years even after their release. Depending on the county, inmates may also be held responsible for other costs related to their own prosecution and punishment, such as reimbursing the government for the cost of their public defender — the lawyer appointed to represent them because they were found to be too poor to hire their own attorney.
4. Parental Reimbursement Programs: Parents of kids who get into trouble with the law are often required to foot the bill for the government’s attempts to rehabilitate their children. Attempts at rehabilitation can take many forms, including locking kids up in secure detention facilities. And when parents don’t make parental reimbursement required by courts, this failure can be grounds for being locked up themselves — and getting saddled with a “pay-to-stay” bill for their own time behind bars.
It bears repeating that all of these “poor taxes” are going to pay for services that support all of us: preserving life and property, keeping our workforce intact, criminal justice and reforming troubled kids. By placing the burden on those least able to afford it, it’s not only a system devoid of compassion, but also common sense.

Suspicious?

In 'United States Of Paranoia,' It's Not Just You

 

 Weekend Edition gets a lot of emails that start like this: "Why don't you tell the truth about ..." The Kennedy assassination, Sept. 11, the Lincoln assassination, the birthplace of Barack Obama or John McCain, Pearl Harbor, Area 51, black helicopters or the moon landing — fill in the blank however you like.
Conspiracy theories are everywhere, and they're more widely believed than many people think. In The United States of Paranoia, Jesse Walker, a senior editor at Reason magazine, suggests that paranoid political arguments are as American as apple pie. Walker tells NPR's Scott Simon about the popularity of conspiracy theories, the long history of paranoia and how pop culture is shaped by revelations of real conspiracies.
Interview Highlights  

On how conspiracy theories are more popular than commonly claimed

"The classic essay that everyone cites on conspiracy theories is Richard Hofstadter's "The Paranoid Style in American Politics," and he says in there that the paranoid style is a marginal phenomenon — they're popular among marginal movements. But in fact, even among the things that we usually think of as conspiracy theories, opinion polls show a great deal of Americans — in some cases a majority of Americans — believing in secret cabals."

On conspiracy theories from America's Colonial period

"Obviously the Salem witch trials are a famous one, although it's not as well-known the extent to which, you know, people suspected that — tried to draw connections, I should say — between the invisible forces that were imagined in Salem and the more visible forces that were surrounding the colony: the fear of Native American conspiracies. And also just the beginning of 'King Philip's war,' which began with the mysterious death of an Indian who came to warn the settlers that 'King Philip' [son of Massasoit and chief of] the Wampanoag tribe was plotting an assault on them. The death was believed to be an assassination — now, to this day we don't know if it was an accident or an assassination, and if it was a murder we don't know if Philip was behind it. It's one of those great open questions that will never be solved."

Jesse Walker is a senior editor at Reason magazine.  

On how paranoia in the 1950s extended beyond McCarthyism

"Obviously there was the Red Scare of the time, and McCarthy is sort of the person who becomes the symbol of that in retrospect. But for one thing the Red Scare built on what historians call the 'Brown Scare' of World War II and immediately before then, which was similar to the Red Scare in that there was this understandable fear of the agents of a totalitarian power — in this case Nazi Germany — but which then spread to a lot of conservative commentators who were not at all sympathetic to fascism.
"Also there was going on what the historian David Johnson has called the 'Lavender Scare,' which was this great fear of gays and lesbians in the civil service, and one result of this was this massive purge. I mean, the director of the CIA in testimony described gays and lesbians as a, quote, 'government within the government' — very paranoid rhetoric. And more people were fired during this period for being gay or allegedly gay than were fired for being Communist or allegedly Communist. Which makes sense, because, you know, there's always been more gays than Communists in America."

On how pop culture reflects different eras' paranoia

"I have a chapter on the 1970s and the way that culture was transformed in the post-Watergate investigations ... the very real conspiracies. And then I look at the effect of this in popular culture, and I contrast an episode of My Three Sons, from the '60s, with an episode of Good Times, from the 1970s. ... They're both about a family that falls under federal surveillance. But in the My Three Sons episode, it's, you know, benign, and we sort of chuckle along as the spies have to listen in on the son, one of the three sons, having this sort of halting courtship over the phone. ... [Fred MacMurray, the father] is working on a top-secret project, so they're, you know, watching them for everyone's own good.
"And then at the end of the episode, Fred MacMurray turns to the camera and says, 'Well, I guess I can tell you what it is now, it's — ' and then they bleep out what he says. They scramble it. And you watch it now, it's incredibly chilling. It's like the secret state is in our living rooms, blocking the television set. But at the time that it aired, they just sort of ran it with a laugh track — it's just another joke.
"Contrast that with the Good Times episode just a little over a decade later — and this episode also ends with the father and the family looking at the camera, because he's gotten his job back, it's been resolved. But he looks at the camera and says 'I have a feeling that somewhere out there there's still a file with my name on it.' And this time there's no laugh track. It's a chilling moment that's supposed to be a chilling moment, and it really shows how much the American culture changed from the early '60s to the mid-'70s, what with all the revelations that had come out."

Daily Comic Relief

Indian teacher wades across river every day to get to his students

Abdul Mallik a 40-year-old primary school teacher in Malappuram, Kerala has no ordinary commute. Every weekday morning he wades across a river with an inner tube tied around his waist, shoes in one hand and clothes in a bag just to reach the primary school where he has been employed for 20 years.

"If I go by bus, it takes me three hours to cover the 12-kilometre distance, but swimming through the river is easier, faster and I reach school on time," he says, after he emerges from the river 15 minutes later. 

He then changes into a dry set of clothes on the river bank, and treks uphill for 10 minutes before he reaches the school. An average salary for government teachers like him is around Rs. 25,000 (£250, $380). The compensation, he says, lies elsewhere.

YouTube link.

A staunch environmentalist, he often takes his students swimming, hoping the field trip will impress upon them the need to save the river, swirling with filth, that he navigates every day.

White magic practitioner summoned after possibly cursed coconut found in the Maldives

Police summoned a white magic practitioner to evaluate a young coconut believed to have been cursed by a black magic spell, after it was found near the Guraidhoo Island presidential election polling station in Kaafu Atoll. Police said they took the coconut into their possession at around 7:05am on Tuesday after receiving a report that the suspicious ‘kihah’ (immature coconut) was located near the Guraidhoo Island School – the island’s polling station for the September 7 presidential election.

The coconut was discovered near the school where the polling station is to be set up, Island Council Vice President Abdul Latheef Ahmed said. “The police brought a ‘ruqyah’ practitioner (white magician) to examine the coconut, who said it was a fake,” a police source said. “Because it’s a fake the police are not worried,” the source added. No arrests have been made in the case.

“The four-inch coconut had a Sura [Qur'anic verse] written in Arabic and was lying on the ground near the school, easy for the public to see,” said a source from Guraidhoo with knowledge of the incident. “When school students saw the coconut they called the principal, who then contacted the police,” he continued. “It was not really ‘fanditha’ (black magic) on the coconut. If it was fanditha, there would have been Arabic letters and numbers written, not a Sura,” he explained.

“It seems like it was a joke, just a prank, so that people will become aware, learn the moral, and not do it again,” he noted, suggesting the coconut was a lesson for islanders not to practice black magic in an attempt to influence voting, and that the polling area would be closely monitored to prevent such activities from occurring. “Now the police and school officials are more aware and police are patrolling the school at night, so magicians can’t practice real black magic at the school,” said the Guraidhoo source. On Wednesday a second possibly cursed coconut was found. Currently nine police are stationed on Guraidhoo for the upcoming election. Normally only five officers are present.

A History Of 'Meh'

Meh is an interjection, often used as an expression of indifference or boredom. It can also be used as an adjective (meaning mediocre, boring, or apathetic. Some have speculated that meh's origin is Yiddish because of its similarity to the interjection 'feh.'

The problem with tracing meh over time is that it's terribly underrepresented in the linguistic and lexicographical literature. A variant of meh, namely mnyeh, famously appears in the works of the late academic and humorist Leo Rosten. But Rosten's work is often disparaged by experts in Yiddishology, and, in any case, there's no evidence that mnyeh is even a Yiddish word.

Stylish Pilots of the Early 20th Century

The men and women who became pilots in the earliest days of airplane flight all had something in common -they were brave, adventurous go-getters. Many of them became quite famous, too, which means we have pictures of them to admire. Pictured here is British World War I flying ace Albert Ball. Check out more of those daring pilots from the early 20th century at  Flavorwire.

Sixteen skulls found on streets in Prague

Police in Prague say 15 human skulls have been found in a wooden box found on a street, and another was found in a garbage bin. Spokeswoman Jana Roesslerova says police found the 15 skulls Thursday morning near a garbage container after they were alerted by a telephone caller. Roesslerova says each skull was numbered. She says another skull, also bearing a number, was found in a garbage bin Wednesday by a homeless person.
Police say it is not clear whether the two cases are connected. They have asked experts to help in their investigation.

Evidence of Iron-Age massacre at Ham Hill

Excavations in Somerset have revealed a gruesome glimpse of Iron-Age Britain. Archaeologists have discovered evidence of a massacre involving hundreds, if not thousands of people, with some of the slaughtered bodies being stripped of their flesh or chopped up.

Excavated remains of the heads and necks of three late Iron Age individuals
thrown into an enclosure ditch [Credit: PA]

Human remains unearthed from an ancient site near Yeovil have cut marks, often in multiple rows, and occurring at the ends of important joints. “It is as if they were trying to separate pieces of the body”, according to Dr Marcus Brittain, the Cambridge archaeologist and head of a major excavation of Britain’s largest Iron-Age hill fort, Ham Hill.

Defleshing signs have been found on other Iron-Age human remains, but the scale of the evidence at this site is particularly dramatic, he said.

Ham Hill is so vast – the size of 123 football pitches surrounded by Iron-Age ramparts – that only a small part has so far been excavated. It is clear from the remains discovered that there are “hundreds, if not thousands of bodies” buried in the site, Dr Brittain told The Independent. “It’s unusual to find this number of bodies on any site, let alone from the Iron Age.”

They are thought to date from the 1st or 2nd century AD, although the site had been occupied for thousands of years. Hill forts generally date from the first millennium BC to the Roman Conquest and are rarely excavated because they are protected ancient monuments.

However, the Ham Hill site contains one of the most important stone materials in southern England, used in the conservation of historic buildings in the region. So, special permission was granted to extend the Ham Hill stone quarry on condition that it funded an important archaeological investigation by the universities of Cambridge and Cardiff.

Its picturesque setting in “green and pleasant lands” jars with the number of human remains found, Dr Brittain said. “It could not be more different to the hill fort’s modern serenity of picnics and dog-walkers.”

The massacre remains unexplained, but it occurred around the start of the Roman invasion. Evidence of Roman military equipment – large ballista bolts – has been found among the bodies. The bolts are heavy and sharp, like arrowheads – “but a hell of a lot bigger,” Dr Brittain said. “They would have been fired by catapult.” One theory is that the Romans executed people in policing and keeping order between indigenous tribes, but it’s unlikely that they did the defleshing because the gruesome practice is rarely associated with them.

Defleshing was linked to Iron Age Britons who often put polished skulls in doorways.

Christopher Evans, director of the Cambridge Archaeology Unit, said that the excavations raised more questions than answers. Further inside the hill fort’s interior, evidence of domestic life from earlier phases of its occupation was found, at a time when people lived in wood and daub houses.

Apart from Iron-Age and Roman pottery, the finds include ritualistic burials – arrangements of human skulls as well as bodies tossed into a pit, left exposed and gnawed by animals. Many of the bodies are predominantly women. “It is weird, there is no doubt,” Dr Brittain said.

Random Celebrity Photos

Tom Mix

Understanding US Water Flows

Streamer is a new way to visualize and understand water flow across America. With Streamer you can explore America's major streams by tracing upstream to their source or downstream to where they empty.

You can also see a Stream Trace Report. The report provides information about the water bodies, streams, and streamflow measuring stations along the routes that you trace using the Streamer map. It also identifies places (states, counties, cities) your trace encounters as it moves downstream or upstream.

Here Comes the Story of No Hurricanes

Scientists don't know everything about hurricanes and global warming. 

But they know one big thing.

by Chris Mooney

 

The tracks of all Atlantic hurricanes from 1851 through 2012. So far, 2013 would add nothing to this image: There haven't been any hurricanes. 

From a PR standpoint, it was surely an ingenious idea: Let's name hurricanes after leading members of Congress who deny that humans are causing global warming! That's the gist of the "Climate Name Change" campaign that launched last month, and the promotional video has already garnered over 2 million YouTube views.
There's just one problem: Thus far this season, the hurricanes haven't shown up. In fact, the dearth of hurricane-strength Atlantic storms up until now, despite blockbuster pre-season forecasts, counts as downright mysterious. "We've never seen this level of inactivity with the ocean conditions out there now," says meteorologist Jeff Masters, who is co-founder of Weather Underground, a popular meteorological website. There has even been speculation that 2013 might rival 2002, a year in which the first hurricane of the season didn't form until September 11.
Meanwhile, a new scientific paper suggests that climate change will decrease, rather than increase, the likelihood that Superstorm Sandy-like storms—atmospheric black swans that take left turns towards the US East Coast—will strike in the future. And a leaked draft of the UN's forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report has significantly downgraded our confidence in the idea that global warming will lead to more intense hurricanes (or, is already doing so).
It's more than enough to make a reasonable person wonder: What the heck is up these days with hurricanes—and with global warming's supposed influence upon them? And do scientists know anything for sure about this, or are they just sticking out a finger in the (very fast) wind?
Why no hurricanes so far this year? It's September, tropics! There's no getting around it. We are very near the seasonal peak of hurricane season, and we have not yet logged a hurricane. That's weird.
Indeed, the climatological peak for hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean is September 10, as you can see in this helpful image from the National Hurricane Center:

Climatology of hurricanes, by date, in the Atlantic. National Hurricane Center

So what's up with this year?
There are a variety of factors that are known to make for quiet Atlantic hurricane seasons—particularly the occurrence of El Nino conditions (as occurred in 2002) in the Pacific Ocean, characterized by very warm tropical ocean waters. But this isn't an El Nino year. Meanwhile, other relevant phenomena currently out there in the atmosphere—a lot of dry air coming off the Sahara Desert, for instance, and a general sinking of air over the tropical Atlantic—don't seem as if they, alone, can account for the lack of activity. "As air sinks, it compresses, warms, and dries out," explains Jeff Masters—and that's not generally conducive to the rising air of hurricanes. "But that doesn't seem like it should be enough to explain why its been so quiet," Masters continues.
The truth is that scientists and forecasters don't really know what caused the lull during this season—which underscores the ongoing tentativeness of our understanding of what sparks individual hurricanes, and what causes their seasonal variability in general.

2005's Hurricane Wilma, the strongest Atlantic hurricane ever recorded, here featuring the pinhole eye characteristic of the strongest storms.

What does that say for predictions of worse hurricanes due to global warming? Given this uncertainty about a single hurricane season, maybe it's no surprise that while the relationship between hurricanes and global warming has been studied for decades, unambiguous and uncontested scientific answers have been hard to come by. For years, scientists have argued that warmer ocean waters ought to lead to more powerful hurricanes: After all, the oceans are a hurricane's energy source. It seems straightforward enough, but debates have raged nonetheless, particularly about whether we can detect any changes to hurricanes that have happened already.
And now—as Andrew Revkin reported—a leaked draft report of the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's forthcoming Fifth Assessment Report seems to have downgraded the level of scientific certainty about global warming and hurricanes in a couple of ways.
Back in 2007, the IPCC said it was "more likely than not" (meaning, a greater-than-50-percent probability) that human activities—through global warming—were contributing to an observed intensification of hurricanes in at least some regions of the globe. Now, by contrast, the IPCC says it has "low confidence" that this is happening. (For the IPCC's extensive explanation of its official terminology for expressing degrees scientific certainty, see here.)
Also in 2007, the IPCC considered it "likely"—meaning, more than a 66 percent probability—that the 21st century would see more intense hurricane activity. Now, it only says that it is "more likely than not"—or more than 50 percent probability—that this will be the case, and only for some parts of the world.
How did the science get less certain? There's an intense scientific debate going on here, and new research conducted since 2007 has given indications that the hurricane picture under climate change may be more complicated than previously supposed. That's because even as warmer oceans provide jet fuel for hurricanes, changes in atmospheric wind patterns can still interfere with their formation by preventing storms from forming or, literally, tearing them apart.
In particular, the IPCC in its latest round likely took note of a major 2010 paper in the journal Nature Geoscience, authored by no less than 10 hurricane experts, finding that "it remains uncertain whether past changes in tropical cyclone activity have exceeded the variability expected from natural causes." It's also important to keep in mind how the IPCC works: There's a cut-off date for assessing the existing scientific literature to be included in each report, and work published after the deadline just doesn't get taken into account.
When it comes to hurricanes, that's quite problematic, because several papers have emerged after the deadline that do suggest that global warming will dramatically impact these mega-storms. That includes a new paper by MIT hurricane expert Kerry Emanuel, suggesting that across the globe, hurricanes will be both more numerous and also more intense under global warming. There's also a new paper by another top hurricane-climate expert, Greg Holland of the National Center for Atmospheric Research and one of his colleagues, finding that hurricanes have already shifted toward more Category 4s and 5s (and fewer Category 1s and 2s) under global warming.
"I do not support the lack of evidence for intense hurricanes in climate changes to date," said Holland in reaction to the IPCC draft. "This view is supported by more recent publications that find a significant relationship directly with human-induced climate change and the most intense hurricanes."
Fewer Sandys in the Future? Meanwhile, another scientific fog arises as a result of a new paper just out in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, suggesting that storms like Superstorm Sandy—which has been widely linked to climate change in popular discourse—might be less likely, rather than more likely, in the future.
First, it's important to lay out the case for why global warming may have been linked to the freakishly unusual path taken by Sandy. The argument begins with the work of Rutgers University climate scientist Jennifer Francis, whose research suggests that the rapid-fire warming of the Arctic is affecting weather in the mid-latitudes through its influence on the jet stream, the gigantic river of air that flows in waves from west to east. More specifically, Francis says the jet stream is slowing down and growing more loopy and that this, in turn, is leading to what you might call "stuck" weather or blocking patterns. One such blocking pattern, a high pressure ridge over Greenland, shaped Sandy's turn toward the East Coast.  (For a detailed presentation by Francis, see our 6/6/13 "Climate Desk Live" event that featured her as a speaker.)
"It's awfully suspicious that we had a 1-in-700 year event after the summer that we had the record sea ice loss in the Arctic," explains Jeff Masters. "And we have a theory relating Arctic sea ice loss to blocking systems of the kind that steered Hurricane Sandy into the coast."

The bizarre track of Superstorm Sandy. 

Francis's views have been contested by other researchers, however. And the new study uses a suite of climate models to suggest that such atmospheric blocking patterns will be less frequent, rather than more frequent, in the future. Francis, however, questions the latest results. “The authors acknowledge that the realism of climate models in simulating blocking patterns is uncertain and that most underestimate the frequency of their occurrence in the North Atlantic,” she commented by email in reaction to the new study.
What scientists do know. In the 1970s, when Congress was debating the safety of the proposed supersonic transport program, Maine Senator Edmund Muskie had just heard conflicting scientific testimony. “Will somebody find me a one-handed scientist?” Muskie allegedly exclaimed. That, at least, would put an end to all the “on the one hand, on the other hand.”
But we don't need any amputations to figure out some things that we can indeed say about hurricanes and global warming. Principally this: While scientists sort all this out, sea levels continue to rise due to global warming. The picture here is very clear. And that means that every single hurricane that hits land will push seawater farther inland when it does so. Or as one scientist told me in the wake of Sandy, "There is 100 percent certainty that sea level rise made this worse. Period."
And then there's the warming of the oceans, which leads to two more clear conclusions, according to Masters. Warmer oceans make hurricane seasons longer, and they also make it possible for storms to travel north. The first idea is supported by published research suggesting an increasing frequency of late-season storms like Sandy (persisting into November or later), and the latter is simply a deduction from principles of physics: If oceans are hotter, hurricanes are more likely to be able to travel north out of the tropics and still have their energy source sustained.
And that, it seems fair to say, is more than enough to worry about.

West Antarctica ice sheet existed 20 million years earlier than previously thought

The results of research conducted by professors at UC Santa Barbara and colleagues mark the beginning of a new paradigm for our understanding of the history of Earth's great global ice sheets. The research shows that, contrary to the popularly held scientific view, an ice sheet on West Antarctica existed 20 million years earlier than previously thought.

Adelie penguins walk in file on sea ice in front of US research icebreaker
Nathaniel B. Palmer in McMurdo Sound [Credit: John Diebold]

The findings indicate that ice sheets first grew on the West Antarctic subcontinent at the start of a global transition from warm greenhouse conditions to a cool icehouse climate 34 million years ago. Previous computer simulations were unable to produce the amount of ice that geological records suggest existed at that time because neighboring East Antarctica alone could not support it.

The findings were published today in Geophysical Research Letters, a journal of the American Geophysical Union.

Given that more ice grew than could be hosted only on East Antarctica, some researchers proposed that the missing ice formed in the northern hemisphere, many millions of years before the documented ice growth in that hemisphere, which started about 3 million years ago. But the new research shows it is not necessary to have ice hosted in the northern polar regions at the start of greenhouse-icehouse transition.

Earlier research published in 2009 and 2012 by the same team showed that West Antarctica bedrock was much higher in elevation at the time of the global climate transition than it is today, with much of its land above sea level. The belief that West Antarctic elevations had always been low lying (as they are today) led researchers to ignore it in past studies. The new research presents compelling evidence that this higher land mass enabled a large ice sheet to be hosted earlier than previously realized, despite a warmer ocean in the past.

"Our new model identifies West Antarctica as the site needed for the accumulation of the extra ice on Earth at that time," said lead author Douglas S. Wilson, a research geophysicist in UCSB's Department of Earth Science and Marine Science Institute. "We find that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet first appeared earlier than the previously accepted timing of its initiation sometime in the Miocene, about 14 million years ago. In fact, our model shows it appeared at the same time as the massive East Antarctic Ice Sheet some 20 million years earlier."

Wilson and his team used a sophisticated numerical ice sheet model to support this view. Using their new bedrock elevation map for the Antarctic continent, the researchers created a computer simulation of the initiation of the Antarctic ice sheets. Unlike previous computer simulations of Antarctic glaciation, this research found the nascent Antarctic ice sheet included substantial ice on the subcontinent of West Antarctica. The modern West Antarctic Ice Sheet contains about 10 percent of the total ice on Antarctica and is similar in scale to the Greenland Ice Sheet.

West Antarctica and Greenland are both major players in scenarios of sea level rise due to global warming because of the sensitivity of the ice sheets on these subcontinents. Recent scientific estimates conclude that global sea level would rise an average of 11 feet should the West Antarctic Ice Sheet melt. This amount would add to sea level rise from the melting of the Greenland ice sheet (about 24 feet).

The UCSB researchers computed a range of ice sheets that consider the uncertainty in the topographic reconstructions, all of which show ice growth on East and West Antarctica 34 million years ago. A surprising result is that the total volume of ice on East and West Antarctica at that time could be more than 1.4 times greater than previously realized and was likely larger than the ice sheet on Antarctica today.

"We feel it is important for the public to know that the origins of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet are under increased scrutiny and that scientists are paying close attention to its role in Earth's climate now and in the past," concluded co-author Bruce Luyendyk, UCSB professor emeritus in the Department of Earth Science and research professor at the campus's Earth Research Institute.