Worst-Case Thinking

Worst-case thinking means generally bad decision making for several reasons. First, it’s only half of the cost-benefit equation. Every decision has costs and benefits, risks and rewards. By speculating about what can possibly go wrong, and then acting as if that is likely to happen, worst-case thinking focuses only on the extreme but improbable risks and does a poor job at assessing outcomes.
Second, it’s based on flawed logic. It begs the question by assuming that a proponent of an action must prove that the nightmare scenario is impossible.
Third, it can be used to support any position or its opposite. If we build a nuclear power plant, it could melt down. If we don’t build it, we will run short of power and society will collapse into anarchy. If we allow flights near Iceland’s volcanic ash, planes will crash and people will die. If we don’t, organs won’t arrive in time for transplant operations and people will die. If we don’t invade Iraq, Saddam Hussein might use the nuclear weapons he might have. If we do, we might destabilize the Middle East, leading to widespread violence and death.
Of course, not all fears are equal. Those that we tend to exaggerate are more easily justified by worst-case thinking. So terrorism fears trump privacy fears, and almost everything else; technology is hard to understand and therefore scary; nuclear weapons are worse than conventional weapons; our children need to be protected at all costs; and annihilating the planet is bad. Basically, any fear that would make a good movie plot is amenable to worst-case thinking.

 Worst-Case Thinking

The other extreme is militant positive thinking. The modern condition seems to be a constant fluctuation between these two extremes: irrational fear and irrational optimism.

Suckers Continue to Be Born Every Minute as Pastor Ted Haggard Starts a New Church

Ted Haggard is back. The disgraced former pastor and his loyal wife Gayle (her new book is out on why she stayed with him) have incorporated a new church -- sort of.

A new church incorporation in Colorado Springs tends to pass unnoticed. After all, there are some 500 churches in the area.

But an incorporation last week stands out because it was done by none other than Ted and Gayle Haggard.

The Haggards give their home address on Old Ranch Road as the site of their new church, which they call St. James. The name is a nod to the passage “faith without works is dead” in the Book of James.

Ted Haggard said Tuesday that St. James was incorporated “to keep the accounting in order” of the paid talks they’ve given for about a year and a half at evangelical churches across the country. The Haggards incur out-of-pocket expenses while on the road, so St. James is a way to be reimbursed for those costs in an orderly manner, he said.

But Haggard doesn’t rule out the possibility that St. James will become in the future a bona fide church with a members roll and choir.

“Sometime, somewhere we will do some type of ministry,” Haggard said.

Interest in Haggard’s ministry plans have been high ever since he and his family returned to Colorado Springs in June 2008.

The Haggards had been living for months in other states due to an agreement he reached with board members at New Life Church at the time of Haggard’s sex scandal in November 2006. Among the stipulations that Haggard agreed to were to resign as senior pastor of the church he founded 25 years ago and leave Colorado Springs, according to Haggard.

Haggard laid low about his Springs ministry plans until November 2009, when he held a prayer meeting at his home that he also referred to as a church gathering. A week later, he held another prayer meeting, this time in his barn.

Because of the crush of people attending, more than 100 people for each meeting, Haggard realized he would need to rent space to accommodate everyone, he said. But he wasn’t ready to do that. So he suspended gatherings through the holidays and focused again on his and Gayle’s weekly itinerant church talks.

Former New Life member Richard Tegtmeier said Tuesday that if the Haggards offer future St. James gatherings, he’ll be there.

“Ted is a very effective teacher,” Tegtmeier said. “The extreme difficulty he’s been through has deepened and enriched his life.”

Daddy's Home

It's Only The Environment After All

It's Only The Environment After All

Puzzling absence of oil spill's impact

It's been 3 weeks since the Deepwater Horizon disaster, but much of the oil still hasn't been seen on the coast.  

Gone? 

Also: 

• Contrast in response
• How to help wildlife
• Leak underestimated?

Tar balls wash up on Gulf shores

Tar balls wash up on Gulf shores

Blobs of tar as big as 8 inches across have some worried about the impact on beach tourism.

See photos 

Also: 

• Where's the oil now?
• Obama blasts companies
• Oil spill cleanup costs

Unexpected benefits of exercise

17 unexpected benefits of exercise

Being active can boost your immune system, improve your vocabulary, and even help your teeth.

Better vision, too 

Also: 

• Core workout at your desk
• Double your calorie burn
• Best time to exercise

Controversy prevents teen sailing record

Controversy prevents teen sailing record

Jessica Watson's epic solo trip around the world is coming to a successful end.  

But record won't be hers 

Also: 

• Latest on her journey
• Update on SoCal sailor
• Golfer aids beached whale

Original 'Law & Order' series canceled

Original 'Law & Order' series canceled

The blockbuster show ends after 20 years, as another version of the franchise is announced.  

New series 

Also:

• More on 'Law & Order'
• Show's memorable stars
• More TV shows canceled

Cop's name triggers legal nightmare

Cop's name triggers legal nightmare

Igor Groysman says he's been hounded over a huge debt owed by a man with the same name.

Details  

Also:

• People with same names
• Lien on your home
• Cell phone bill shock

Chef hurls meat cleaver at fleeing thief, nails him in the back

Full story

A chef at a Stockholm restaurant rushed out of his kitchen on Thursday afternoon and threw a meat cleaver at a departing thief as his restaurant was robbed for the second time in a week.

Teacher sacked after being filmed beating student

Sherri Davis, a science teacher at Jamie's House Charter School in Houston, backed 13-year-old Isaiah Johnson into a corner and began beating him while his classmates watched. Janiqua Johnson, one of Isaiah's classmates, filmed the attack on her mobile phone. In the footage, Ms Davis cane be seen dragging Isaiah across the floor before kicking and slapping him.

The video shows that the children initially thought that Ms Davis was joking with the boy after he teased a female classmate. At the beginning of the video the children laugh and clap, but the laughter stops abruptly when Ms Davis starts hitting the boy.

Janiqua said that the teacher "snapped". "She just started beating him up," Janiqua Johnson said. "His behaviour may have been bad but he didn't deserve that," she said. Ms Davis was placed on administrative leave when school officials learned of the incident, but was fired when officials saw the video.

Isaiah's mother Alesha Johnson said the video was now in the hands of Harris County Sheriff's investigators and she has filed criminal charges. She said: "I'm horrified. I just can't believe something like that would happen to my child."

Six-year-old handcuffed at school

A New Orleans elementary school is under fire after a 6-year-old student was handcuffed by an armed security guard on campus.

Ja'Brieil Weston, a first grader at Sarah T. Reed School, was handcuffed after getting into a fight in the lunchroom. His parents say Ja'Briel's feet were also cuffed.

The school district issued a statement stating they are investigating the incident.

The family said Ja-Briel was suspended after his father complained at a meeting last Friday.

Video.

Woman arrested after taking toddler to jail in handcuffs

An Albuquerque mother was arrested for child abuse after police said she left a pair of toy handcuffs tightly attached to her son's leg for 24 hours. Monique Garcia, 19, and her baby boy went to the Metropolitan Detention Center in Albuquerque to visit her husband on Sunday. Deputies said when she got there she asked a deputy if he had a key that would unlock some plastic handcuffs on her son's leg.

"The child's leg, foot was turning purple and losing circulation," Tommy Trujillo, Deputy Chief of Security at MDC, said. According to a criminal complaint, Garcia's friend, who was watching the child on Saturday, put the toy cuffs on the boy because he was being fussy. 24 hours later, when Garcia was at MDC for her visit, jail staff told her they did not have a key that worked on the cuffs. They advised Garcia to the hospital immediately to get her son examined.

Garcia did not go to the hospital and instead took a seat in the jail waiting room to visit her husband. "She was more concerned about getting the visit she came out here for instead of taking her child for emergency care," Trujillo said. Once deputies saw Garcia was not going to get help, she was arrested for child abuse while an ambulance came to remove the cuffs and check on the boy.

Emergency crews had to cut off the toy handcuffs, according to deputies. According to the criminal complain, Monique Garcia told police she did not call them on Saturday when she saw the cuffs on her son because, "she is not a police person". Garcia is still behind bars on a $100,000 bond.

Odds and Sods

Odds and Sods

In Cop News

DA is AOK with cop who killed man who was wearing same color shirt as a robbery suspect

Ohio cop is suspended over extramarital on-duty boinking of mayor

Honolulu police officer guilty in Vegas drug case

Pennsylvania police violate constitution by citing hundreds just for cursing

Utah town pays $125,000 to settle lawsuit over on-duty sexual assault by policeman

New Jersey police officer is convicted on insurance fraud charges

Philadelphia cop is charged with terrorist threats, stalking, simple assault, recklessly endangering another person and harassment

Investigation reveals that Nashville Police "fudged" their impressive crime-solving stats

Delaware cop pleads guilty in pepper-spray incident

Heinz Changing Ketchup Recipe To Reduce Sodium

People take their ketchup very seriously, and for many only one brand will do, the one that was born in Pittsburgh more than 150 years ago.

Couple Told to be Quiet or Face Jail

A warring Welsh couple were given a court asbo order in a bid to stop them arguing in their own home, The Sun reported Thursday. 

The Daily Drift

The Daily Drift

Today's horoscope says:
Cupid is sometimes too cautious for your liking.
You can't just strut up to him out of nowhere and demand that he shoots the object of your affections just to power up your love life!
For now, try just acting nonchalant and totally unconcerned with what happens next.
The more frantically you seem to want love, the less likely it is to come your way right now.

Some of our readers today have been in:

Milano, Lombardia, Italy

San Salvador, San Salvador, El Salvador

Amersfoort, Utrecht, Netherlands

Melbourne, Victoria, Australia

Paris, Ile-De-France, France

Dublin, Dublin, Ireland

leicester, England, United Kingdom

Quebec, Quebec, Canada

Antwerp, Antwerpen, Belgium

London, England, United Kingdom

Karlskrona, Blekinge Lan, Sweden

Mexico City, Distrito Federal, Mexico

Sydney, New South Wales, Australia

New Delhi, Delhi, India

Rome, Lazio, Italy

Vigo, Galicia, Spain

as well as the Czech Republic, and the United States in such cities as Bossier City, Fairpoint, Shrewsbury, South Bend, Twin Falls and more

Today is Thursday, May 13, the 133rd day of 2010.

There are 232 days left in the year.

Today In History May 13

Today's unusual holidays or celebrations are:
Frog Jumping Day
and
Root Canal Appreciation Day

As The World Turns

As The World Turns                                                              

Swedish Cartoonist Object of Attempted Attack

Full story

The Swedish cartoonist whose depiction of the prophet Mohammed as a dog has elicited death threats was the object of an attempted attack Tuesday at Sweden's Uppsala University, police said.

Glitzy hotel boasts 'ATM' that gives gold

An eye-catching kiosk in the Emirates Palace turns cash into 24-carat gold bars and coins.

Customized designs 

Also: 

• More about the machine
• Gold at an all-time high
• Emirates Palace hotel

Mysterious disease hits Afghan drug crop

The country's infamous poppy harvest is set for a drastic fall, but no one fully understands why.

'Part of nature' 

Also: 

• Afghan army's problems
• Deadly raids on Taliban
• Find facts about fungi

Crisis in Thailand takes dramatic turn

A rebel general who was shot while talking to a reporter becomes a symbol of the chaos.

Peace talks collapse 

Also: 

• More on Thai Red Shirts
• Clashes turn deadly
• Retail mecca shut down

Indian minister says eunuch regiment needed to protect borders

A regiment of eunuchs should be established to guard India's borders and leading politicians, a state minister said on Tuesday, citing their "loyalty and integrity". "In my humble opinion, if eunuchs are engaged in policing or paramilitary forces they would do a better service to the nation," said Tako Dabi, home minister of the north-eastern state of Arunachal Pradesh.

Mr Dabi sent a letter to Indian Home Minister P. Chidambaram to offer his idea for the improved defense of the country. "Why can't there be a separate regiment of eunuch community in our country?" he wrote in the letter. "This community would discharge their duties effectively on international borders if enough scope is created for them."

In India, the term "eunuch" is mostly used to refer to cross-dressers and pre- and post-operative transsexuals. Indian eunuchs are severely marginalised and, unable to gets jobs, rely on begging and the sex trade for income. They also attend weddings and births uninvited, as many people believe it is inauspicious to turn them away without giving them money.

Mr Dabi, speaking in Itanagar, the capital of Arunachal Pradesh - which has a long border with China - said that during the Mugal empire, castrated eunuchs had often been employed to guard harems. Eunuchs last year won the right to be recognised as "others", rather than male or female, on electoral rolls and voter identity cards. Mr Dabi is known for his original ideas. In March he defended policemen who consumed alcohol on duty, saying it gave them extra energy.

Family killed as home swallowed up by giant sinkhole in Quebec

A French-Canadian family were killed when their home fell into a giant sinkhole during a freak landslide in Quebec on Monday.

The four members of the Préfontaines family – including two children aged about 9 and 11 – were watching an ice hockey game on television when the earth suddenly gave way and engulfed their home, on a cliff overlooking the Yamaska River.

Authorities said that the family had been in the basement lounge area cheering on their favorite team, the Montreal Canadiens, when the accident occurred.

Rescuers frantically dug through the night to look for survivors, however the bodies of Richard Préfontaines, his wife and their children, were found late yesterday.

“They were found very close to one another, some of them lying on the couch in the family room in the basement,” said Michel Doré, Quebec’s emergency management co-ordinator.

The family’s pet dog was found earlier, alive and tied to a tree in the mud. The golden retriever, named Foxy, was so weak it was initially thought to be dead, however it is expected to fully recover.

Deadly plane crash leaves sole survivor

Dozens of people are reported dead after an airliner crashes in Libya, but a 10-year-old is found alive.

104 aboard 

Also: 

• Images of the aftermath
• Watch search & rescue
• Find more on the carrier

Local Hospitality

Local Hospitality

South End's historic fire station will be saved

A century-old fire station in South End will be saved from the wrecking ball.

Fire station inspires memories
Historic Fire Station No. 2

When you need one

A hero isn't hard to find ...

Elderly have-a-go hero shot four times after smashing beer bottle over armed robber's head

A heroic act potentially saves the life of a store clerk but the hero is shot in exchange for his bravery and it's all caught on camera. A gunman was demanding money from a clerk at a gas station in Caroline County, Virginia, and even fired twice at the clerk's feet.

But then, a customer from the back of the store, snuck up behind the suspect and smashed a beer bottle over his head. The suspect ran for it, but fired multiple times hitting the hero, who is in his 60s, four times causing injuries to his legs, shoulder and head.

People in the store say he's a real hero and saved their lives. "He is a hero. He didn't have to do that. He could have walked right out of the store," the clerk said. "He's a hero and I just want to hug and kiss him."

The man who was shot is believed to have been released from the hospital and is recovering at home.

Hemp isn't just for hippies anymore

Hemp isn't just for hippies anymore

It's durable.

It's versatile.

And when it's used in textiles, it's easier on the environment than, say, cotton.

Is it possible to dine out politely with kids?

Is there any hatred more vile and seething than that reserved for parents and young children by people not in the mood?
In cities, particularly, it becomes turf war: small spaces and bulky bourgeois baby-care accouterments really don't mix.

Is it possible to dine out politely with kids?