WaPo reports that Democrats are ahead in three key Senate races:
The latest Marquette Law School poll of the Wisconsin Senate
race shows Rep. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) leading former governor Tommy
Thompson (r) , 50 percent to 41 percent, a sharp turnabout from a
mid-August survey that showed the Republican ahead by the same margin...
A Quinnipiac University/New York Times/CBS News poll released Wednesday
showed Baldwin tied with Thompson, after trailing by 6 points last
month...
A race that does not appear to be tightening is the one in Virginia,
where former Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine has built a
lead in two new polls, one from the Washington Post and another from
Quinnipiac/NYT/CBS. Kaine leads former senator George Allen (R) by 8
percentage points in the former survey and 7 in the latter.
In
Massachusetts, where Sen. Scott Brown (r) seemed to do everything right
this summer, four polls released this week showed Democrat Elizabeth
Warren holding a slight lead. One pollster characterized the boost in
support for Warren as a post-convention bounce.
Nate Silver says the odds are now in the favor of Democrats holding control of the Senate:
Democrats are now favored to retain control of the Senate
when the new Congress convenes in January, according to the
FiveThirtyEight forecast, breaking a summer stalemate during which
control of the chamber appeared about equally likely to go either way.
An unusually large number of Senate races remain competitive, meaning
that a wide range of outcomes are still possible. repugicans have about
a 10 percent chance of winning a net of at least six seats from
Democrats, according to the forecast, which would give them control of
at least 53 seats next year. However, there is also about a 20 percent
chance that Democrats could actually gain Senate seats on balance,
giving them at least 54. The only thing that seems completely assured is
that neither party will control enough seats next year to hold a
filibuster-proof majority.
But the odds of a favorable overall outcome for Democrats have increased
in recent weeks. The forecast model now gives them a 70 percent chance
of controlling the chamber, either by having at least 50 seats and the
presidency, or 51 without it.
And HuffPost reports that the r's are losing it over
Romney's disaster of a campaign (and I wonder whether the Democrats' success
at the state level isn't in part due to Romney as well):
The REPUGICANS STARTING TO FREAK OUT - Over the last few weeks,
McLean doctors have been hit up for Xanax refills earlier than
expected, Lexuses have been driven a bit more aggressively down 66 and
children have been paid even less attention. And repugican strategists are LOSING
IT.
Jon Ward: "Now it's repugicans who are frightened. Mitt Romney's recent
troubles have created a sense of gloom, and a good dose of doom, in the repugican cabal...
'There's a feeling of almost that this thing's in free fall,' said a repugican consultant with deep experience on Capitol Hill and extensive
contacts in the Romney campaign. 'When campaigns spend an enormous
amount of time trying to figure out why they're broken, I don't know if
they ever come back,' said this repugican, who like others who spoke
about their frustration, did not want to be identified.
Another operative who has worked for the repugican cabal on many
national congressional campaigns was blunt about his feelings. 'I'm
pretty discouraged. The thing is, [Democrats] ran Jimmy Carter, and we
answered with Thomas Dewey,' he said, referring to the Republican
politician who lost presidential elections in 1944 and 1948. 'And it
didn't have to be that way.'"
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