Two new polls of the Senate races in Kansas and
North Carolina reveal that a repugican wave remains media wishful
thinking, as Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan leads in North Carolina, and
Independent Greg Orman is tied with Pat Roberts in Kansas.
The PPP poll
of North Carolina found Sen. Kay Hagan leading her repugican
challenger Thom Tillis 46%-43%. The bad news for Republicans is that the
North Carolina race features a voter breakdown that looks like the
roadmap to a Democratic victory. Hagan lead with women (49%-37%),
African-Americans (85%-4%), and young voters (61%-27%). Tillis leads
with men (49%-42%), white voters (55%-34%), and seniors (54%-37%) Hagan
has a better net approval rating (-9) than Tillis (-12), and has
consistently maintained the same roughly three point lead for months.
The Kansas Senate race is turning into a nailbiter. A new Monmouth University
poll shows Independent Greg Orman tied with repugican Pat
Roberts 47%-47%. One of the main issues for Orman is that he has not
been able to completely persuade Democrats. Orman got the support of 81%
of Democratic. His support among Dems is ten points lower than the
level of support for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Paul Davis. What
is helping Orman is that only 76% of repugicans are supporting Roberts. Orman’s inability to woo more Democratic support is probably
due to his refusal to say who he will caucus with if he wins.
Democrats keep doing better than the media is giving
them credit for. The 2014 election is extremely close. The idea that
there will be a repugican wave as some sort of backlash against
President Obama remains a media driven fantasy.
The reality is that the media has chosen to push an
anti-Obama storyline while ignoring the fact that the 2014 election is
one of the closest midterms in decades. Anyone who claims to know how
this election is going to turnout is not telling the truth.
The repugican cabal has failed to turn the campaign
into a national referendum on Obama, and the result is an election that
is being contested on a state by state basis. The series of
individualized election plays perfectly into the hands of the Democratic
get out the vote machine.
The battle for control of the United States Senate
will likely to come down to five close elections. The Senate majority
will be decided by results in Georgia, Kentucky, Arkansas, Kansas, and
Iowa.
Democrats are hanging tough, and in position to turn
the repugican wave of 2014 into a trickle down the pant leg of
American democracy.
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