5 factors that are giving the US an edge over other major economies
by Paul Wiseman
Europe is floundering. China faces slower growth. Japan is struggling to sustain tentative gains.
Yet
the U.S. job market is humming, and the pace of economic growth is
steadily rising. Five full years after a devastating recession
officially ended, the economy is finally showing the vigor that
Americans have long awaited.
Last
month, employers added 288,000 jobs and helped reduce the unemployment
rate to 6.1 percent, the lowest since September 2008. June capped a
five-month stretch of 200,000-plus job gains — the first in nearly 15
years.
After having shrunk
at a 2.9 percent annual rate from January through March — largely
because of a brutal winter — the U.S. economy is expected to grow at a
healthy 3 percent pace the rest of the year.
Here are five reasons the United States is outpacing other major economies:
AN AGGRESSIVE CENTRAL BANK
"The
Federal Reserve acted sooner and more aggressively than other central
banks in keeping rates low," says Bernard Baumohl, chief global
economist at the Economic Outlook Group.
In
December 2008, the Fed slashed short-term interest rates to near zero
and has kept them there. Ultra-low loan rates have made it easier for
individuals and businesses to borrow and spend. The Fed also launched
three bond-buying programs meant to reduce long-term rates.
By
contrast, the European Central Bank has been slower to respond to signs
of economic distress among the 18 nations that share the euro currency.
The ECB actually raised rates in 2011 — the same year the eurozone sank
back into recession.
It's
worth keeping in mind that the Fed has two mandates: To keep prices
stable and to maximize employment. The ECB has just one mandate: To
guard against high inflation. The Fed was led during and after the Great
Recession by Ben Bernanke, a student of the Great Depression who was
determined to avoid a repeat of the 1930s' economic collapse.
Janet
Yellen, who succeeded Bernanke as Fed chair this year, has continued
his emphasis on nursing the U.S. economy back to health after the
recession of 2007-2009 with the help of historically low rates.
STRONGER BANKS
The
United States moved faster than Europe to restore its banks' health
after the financial crisis of 2008-2009. The U.S. government bailed out
the financial system and subjected big banks to stress tests in 2009 to
reveal their financial strength. By showing the banks to be surprisingly
healthy, the stress tests helped restore confidence in the U.S.
financial system.
Banks
gradually started lending again. European banks are only now undergoing
stress tests, and the results won't be out until fall. In the meantime,
Europe's banks lack confidence. They fear that other banks are holding
too many bad loans and that Europe is vulnerable to another crisis. So
they aren't lending much.
In the United States, overall bank lending is up nearly 4 percent in the past year. Lending to business has jumped 10 percent.
In
the eurozone, lending has dropped 3.7 percent overall, according to
figures from the Institute of International Finance. Lending to business
is off 2.5 percent. (The U.S. figures are for the year ending in
mid-June; the European figures are from May.)
A MORE FLEXIBLE ECONOMY
Economists
say Japan and Europe need to undertake reforms to make their economies
more flexible — more, in other words, like America's.
Europe
needs to lift wage restrictions that prevent employers from cutting pay
(rather than eliminating jobs) when times are bad. It could also
rethink welfare and retirement programs that discourage people from
working and dismantle policies that protect favored businesses and block
innovative newcomers, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development has argued.
Prime
Minister Shinzo Abe has proposed reforms meant to make the Japanese
economy more competitive. He wants to expand child care so more women
can work, replace small inefficient farms with more large-scale
commercial farms and allow more foreign migrant workers to fill labor
shortages in areas such as nursing and construction.
Yet his proposals face fierce opposition.
"Europe
and Japan remain less well-positioned for durable long-term growth, as
they have only recently begun to tackle their deep-rooted structural
problems, and a lot remains to be done," says Eswar Prasad, a professor
of trade policy at Cornell University.
China
is struggling to manage a transition from an economy based on exports
and often wasteful investment in real estate and factories to a sturdier
but likely slower-growing economy based on more consumer spending.
LESS BUDGET-CUTTING
Weighed
down by debt, many European countries took an ax to swelling budget
deficits. They slashed pension benefits, raised taxes and cut civil
servants' wages. The cuts devastated several European economies. They
led to 27 percent unemployment in Greece, 14 percent in Portugal and 25
percent in Spain. The United States has done some budget cutting, too,
and raised taxes. But U.S. austerity hasn't been anywhere near as harsh.
A ROARING STOCK MARKET
The
Fed's easy-money policies ignited a world-beating U.S. stock market
rally. Over the past five years, U.S. stocks have easily outpaced shares
in Europe, Japan and Hong Kong. That was one of Bernanke's goals in
lowering rates. He figured that miserly fixed-income rates would nudge
investors into stocks in search of higher returns. Higher stock prices
would then make Americans feel more confident and more willing to spend —
the so-called wealth effect.
Most economists agree it's worked.
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